Board Thread:General Discussion/@comment-26006155-20200107155350/@comment-32182236-20200205170807

That's right:So if we prove that I DO happen to be an alt of one of the three people mentioned, it boosts the chances that I'm also another one of the three people mentioned.

The first term can then safely be ignored, only leaving the second term as the prior proabability:The odds that the alt happens to be this other user.

Though we should then multiply it by the average number of alts any alter has. Or, in the first case, as it hasn't been proven that I have any, the average number of alts any given user has.

After all, if the average is two, the odds of the alt happening to match up with Merc has doubled.