Board Thread:General Discussion/@comment-26006155-20200107155350/@comment-32182236-20200205163834

I get that you can use Baye's Theorem to calculate probabilities in a tightly controlled, known, predictable environment. Such as calculating the possiblity of drawing another face card in a 52-card deck after having already drawn a King.

Bayes' Theorem actually doesn't apply in that example. Drawing another face card is not a hypothesis as to what was drawn before. Instead, we simply remove the King from the deck, and calculate the odds. The odds of drawing another face card is 11/51.

Now, if you wanted to know the odds that the whole deck was replaced with Kings, because you drew 3 Kings in a row, then Bayes' Theorem would be used.

I'm suggesting we use Bayes' Theorem when analyzing Undertale, I wasn't attempting to use it in the idea of me being the same as those four. However, it is technically feasible.. Though it'd take quite a long time to do so.

Once again, though, we'd need to start with a prior probability.

Now, you're making three separate assumptions. That I'm Ocean, that I'm Merc, and that I'm Cutesy.

If we were to use Bayes' Theorem, we'd be better off testing each one of these individually. (After all, for all you know, I might be Cutesy, but not Merc.)

What's the prior probability of someone having two separate accounts? Knowing nothing else, that is.

We'd start there. That would define the prior probability, that is, P(A), or just A in the second form of my equation.