Thread:TheHumanAmbassador/@comment-26907577-20190903100614/@comment-26907577-20190903194313

But, we don't have a starting population or date for Chara's village.

We do for the United States, though.

Jamestown was founded in 1607. The thirteenth of the colonies (Georgia) was chartered in 1752. However, it (and the other twelve) had existed in some form since 1732. Let's take this as our earliest fall date.

The colonial population in 1730 was around 630,000 [web.viu.ca/davies/h320/population.colonies.htm]. The population in 2010 was around 309,300,000. That gives an annual growth rate of...

2.2%. Or 1.022. It's been accelerating in recent years, but this will do.

So, if my math is correct... (will add Desmos link in a moment)

There is an 8.275-to-1 chance of a random fall between 1730 and 2010 being after 1910. (Slider included!)

But what about 8 falls all being after 1910? (8.275/9.275)^8 = 0.4 Not at all implausible! And it stays above 5% all the way to the 1950's.

Even that is a better-than-2/3 chance if Chara's fall caused the others (e.g. People looking for them).

Oh, and your 1:7 placement for Chara would put it at... 1916. That is, if Frisk falls in 2010 and the other seven divide the integral into eighths. (1/8 before Chara, 7/8 after)