Board Thread:General Discussion/@comment-26907577-20191002153041/@comment-26907577-20191003165043

Bump.

Anyway, I'm going to take a moment to rephrase once more why our calculations differ.

You calculated the probability that there was exactly one pair.

I calculated the probability that there were no pairs until Frisk, at which point Frisk was paired with the first human in particular.

I notice we both found the value of (n-1)*(n-2)*(n-3)...(n-6), but I don't understand what you meant by C(8, 2).

The point of my method is that it ensures that not only is there exactly one pair, but that pair is between two specific humans. Your method gives a massive boost to the probability by allowing the bottled SOULs to match with each other while Frisk is different from Chara, or for Chara or Frisk to match one of the bottled SOULs. We don't want that, because we want the match to be between the two humans who weren't in jars.