Board Thread:General Discussion/@comment-26907577-20191002153041/@comment-26907577-20191113140311

First off, we've basically given up there being more than 7. It doesn't help, and evidence seems to be against it.

Your probabilities are very strange. Consider a simplified model: The only time the red probability increases is after the Determination village forgets, but Bravery and Integrity (and all the others) don't. Which means that after everybody forgets the rules, the probability of red being next goes down little by little, until it's equal to the average. Only if Frisk falls significantly before everybody's forgotten the seven humans before do the odds of being red increase.
 * 1) Chara falls; The Determination village places a strict curfew on children to prevent another.
 * 2) Orange falls; The Bravery village does the same.
 * 3) Blue falls; The Integrity village joins in.
 * 4) The Determination village forgets, and abolishes those rules.
 * 5) The Bravery village forgets.
 * 6) The Integrity village forgets.
 * 7) Frisk falls somewhere between immediately after 3 and long after 6.

...But, 12.5% is the average that we're working down to. Which is still a heckofalot better than 2.4%.