Board Thread:General Discussion/@comment-26006155-20200107155350/@comment-26907577-20200205162631

Oh, Bayes' Theorem.

It shows how THA decides whether a given piece of "small" evidence should be dismissed or investigated.

It's the mathy way of saying "if it looks like a duck and walks like a duck and sounds like a duck it's probably a duck, but if it looks like a duck and walks like a duck and breathes arsenic it's probably not a duck."

And if it's just a duck, you don't need to work it into your theory.